Our Family Orphan Communities - Vietnam
Community Solar Electric
Business Plan
[September 2008]
_________
Business Plan
Copy Number
Bob Miller
Executive Director
P O Box 906
Alamosa,
CO 81101-0906
Fax: 253-270-1604
info@orphancommunities.org
This document contains
Confidential & Proprietary
Information
belonging exclusively to OFOC-Vietnam.
This
is a business plan.
It does not imply an offering of Securities.
Credits
The
following have contributed information and/or assistance in the development of
this business and/or in writing this business plan directly or by their work on
public projects:
Marshall Chase
Sait Sahir
Community Solar Electric Business Plan Table of Contents Title Page ..................................................................................................... 1 Credits .......................................................................................................... 2 Table of Contents......................................................................................... 2 Executive Summary..................................................................................... 4 Vision, Mission & Goals............................................................................... 5 Company Background ................................................................................ 6 Present Situation ......................................................................................... 7 Management................................................................................................. 7 Product/Service Overview ........................................................................... 8 Market Analysis............................................................................................ 9 Marketing Plan & Strategy........................................................................ 11 Financial Plan............................................................................................ 12 Capital Requirements................................................................................. 15 Development Plan ..................................................................................... 18 Risk............................................................................................................. 19 Appendix / Supporting Documents............................................................ 21 Solar
Tracking Systems ........................................................................ 22 Estimates
of Community Electric Usage ............................................. 23 Significant
Data & Calculations .......................................................... 26
Executive Summary
OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric is a project of Our Family
Orphan Communities, a nonprofit that plans to build self-sustaining Communities
for orphans in
Although the actual electricity demand is uncertain because
the community does not yet exist, a rough low-end estimate is 352 kWh per day
and maximum load of 550 kW. Financial
estimates for a range of project configurations to meet this demand indicate
that OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric will be unable to provide electricity to the
Community at rates comparable to the electricity available from the local grid,
primarily because of the very large up-front cost of equipment including solar
panels and batteries. However, there
remain opportunities for skills training and possible learning to be applied to
future OFOC projects in other locations where solar electricity generation
would be more financially viable. In
addition, future reductions in capital costs or other changes may make the
project more financially viable at some point.
OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric Vision
The use of renewable and natural resources is a key element in the design of the self-sustaining Communities. Solar energy is an important, still underutilized, resource for our world. OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric will be a critical resource for the Orphan Communities Project worldwide, providing electric power to the street orphan Communities in developing and third world countries. The use of solar power (electric, heat) will be balanced with other available natural power resources to find the optimal design for a specific geographic location.
The OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric mission is to design, build and provide electric power appropriate for the geographic location and needs of each Community, while providing job skills training for Community members.
In locations where the Solar Electric facility is able to generate more power than the Community uses, the extra power will be sold if possible and the income used to help support the Orphan Community childcare mission of providing homes and families to street orphans.
OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric will offer innovative design and state of the art implementation as well as training of Community residents and local host country citizens to ensure they are fully capable of installing and maintaining the systems.
Goals
In order for OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric to attain its vision and mission, we must achieve the following goals:
- Conduct comprehensive review of costs and benefits of proposed solar facility and make final decision to approve or reject the construction of a solar electric facility (including project size and funding decisions) by 1 July 2009.
- If approved, complete construction of facility by 1 July 2010.
- Initiate solar installation and maintenance vocational trainings by 1 September 2010.
We feel confident that our stated goals can be reached, based on the experience of our management team.
Background: Our Family Orphan Communities
Our Family Orphan Communities (OFOC) is a US-registered nonprofit that exists to create self-sustaining Communities for orphans, as well as medical clinics and assistance for local host country social and humanitarian programs. OFOC’s mission is to design, develop and build Communities where street orphans will live in a family, have surrogate parents and grandparents, receive healthcare, continue their education, learn how to use computers, participate in social and recreational activities, and receive job skills training that will prepare them for their and their country’s future. These communities will be economically self-sufficient, green, and high-technology based. The goal is to create Communities that are able to provide homes and families for street orphans while maintaining financial self-sufficiency by owning and operating businesses that both fund the Communities and provide skills training for Community members.
OFOC is in the process of developing the first model
Community in
Ideally, OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric would play an integral
role in the OFOC concept by providing clean solar power to the Community at a
reasonable cost, provide the potential to generate and sell additional
electricity, and offer the opportunity for job skills training to Community
members.
Present Situation
Company
OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric will be a service based business focused on generating electricity for the Community and potentially customers in the surrounding areas. It will be an incorporated business owned by OFOC Vietnam (described above).
Management
The management of OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric will be handled by the Community Business Management Team that oversees all of the OFOC owned businesses.
This team will:
- Oversee the installation of the system,
- Manage administrative details,
- Conduct maintenance as needed,
- Implement upgrades
- Conduct job skills training of the young people of the Community and local citizens of the host country.
The strength of the OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric management team will come from the expertise of the Community Business Management.
Board of Directors
An outside Board of Directors, including highly qualified business and industry professionals/experts, will assist our management team in making appropriate key decisions and taking the most effective action; however, they will not be responsible for management decisions.
Board of Advisors
OFOC-Vietnam Community Business Management outside Board of Advisors includes business owners and managers from a variety of businesses and disciplines. Each offers a unique perspective, and a wealth of experience to draw on as we grow. We also get great “cross-fertilization” for each of our respective businesses as we share ideas and suggestions. Our advisory board participates in regular brainstorming sessions, and we frequently contact advisors individually to draw on their specific areas of expertise.
Financial Status
Currently, with our associates in
As each business plan is completed for the OFOC effort, we discuss the individual business plans and the entire Community project with investors who are interested in participating in a “Social Business” venture. In a Social Business, the investors will have their initial investment repaid, however no further dividends or return after that. The future earnings will be used to support the social causes as designated by the business.
Product/Service
Overview: providing solar electricity
OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric will provide electricity to the planned
Orphan Community in
In order to harness and provide this solar energy, photovoltaic (PV) cells will be used to convert sunlight into electricity. In addition, two of our options include a large battery backup system to provide the community with up to 4 days of electricity in case of continuous non-sunlight days.
Solar was selected as the source of electricity for the following reasons:
· Low operating costs. Photovoltaic cells require very few ongoing operating costs once they are installed. They typically operate for 25 years or more with little required maintenance and no fuel costs, and they generate electricity through a wide range of temperature and light conditions.
· Source of cleaner energy. Solar energy does not produce any harmful emissions during operations. In terms of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (production and operation), a photovoltaic solar power plant emits about 25-32 g/KWh as compared to 400 g/KWh for a combined gas-fired power plant and 915 g/KWh for a coal fired power plant. (http://www.ecn.nl/publicaties/default.aspx?nr=ECN-RX--06-016)
·
Grid
· Availability. Unlike fossil fuels, the raw material needed for solar power is plentiful. There is a tremendous amount of sunlight reaching the earth’s surface, currently about 6000 times more than what is consumed by humans. (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/52/25/36760950.pdf#search=%22worldwide%20consumption%20of%20energy%2013%20TW%20smil%22)
· Skills training. On-site electricity generation using a PV system provides the opportunity to train Community members in the installation and maintenance of such systems, which is a potentially valuable job skill.
In addition to providing for the energy demands of the orphan community, the secondary objective of the solar energy plant would be to sell electricity back to the power grid and generate extra revenue for the community. Achieving this objective will depend on the following:
- Physical grid availability (whether a local grid is available to accept any electricity that is generated),
- Regulations. In particular, whether it is legally possible to sell electricity into the grid or to other local buyers, and
- Profitability of any electricity sales.
Market Analysis:
The primary target
market of the solar energy facility is a self sustaining orphan community. The
target geographic region where this community would exist is in the Ninh Binh
province in
An even greater challenge to selling electricity from OFOC-Vietnam
Solar Electric into the local grid is the likely cost of producing
electricity. Depending on configuration,
it is estimated that it will cost OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric between $0.118 and
$0.30 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), which compares extremely unfavorably with the
price of electricity from EVN at about $0.051/kWh (http://english.vietnamnet.vn/biz/2006/11/639351/). Even if original capital costs are ignored
and only replacement equipment costs are accounted for, a system with a battery
backup that can consistently provide power for sale is estimated to cost at least
$0.08/kWh. (Please refer to the
financial section of this document for more details.) The availability of net metering, feed-in
tariffs (requiring the purchase of renewable power at a specific, usually
elevated, price) and a range of tax benefits and rebates contribute to reducing
these costs in some other countries, but they are unavailable in
Because electricity cannot be sold to outside buyers at competitive rates, OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric should not attempt to attract external customers and can construct a facility to meet the needs of the orphan community alone. The orphan community is a captive market which can be guaranteed to purchase electricity from OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric to meet its needs, but because the Community has not been constructed yet there is significant uncertainty about its demand for electricity. Rough estimates of electricity demand for the Community place it between 352 kWh/day with a maximum load of 55 kW, and 1430 kWh/day with a maximum load of 110kW (see supporting documents for more details). We have constructed financial estimates for OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric around a facility sized to meet the lower end of those estimates based on the fact that additional electricity can be purchased from the grid if needed, and additional solar panels and batteries can be added to the facility with relatively little difficulty.
The solar power facility might have a small opportunity to market and sell carbon credits by reducing greenhouse gases that would be emitted if the solar power facility is not built. In order to receive funding by selling these credits, the solar power project will need to prove that the planned reductions in greenhouse gases would not occur without the additional incentive provided by the emissions reductions credits. However, going down the path of selling credits in order to generate revenue for the facility may not be financially viable, as outlined in the finance section of this document.
Other markets or locations might be a better fit for the solar power project due to the availability of better sunlight, government rebates, tax incentives, more expensive grid electricity and availability of net metering.
Marketing Plan and
Strategy
The OFOC consumers
of the solar electricity provided by project can be considered a captive
market, since the electricity is generated by a business that is part of the
OFOC project, and there is no need to raise consumer awareness. Hence, for OFOC-Vietnam Solar Electric at the Ninh Binh project site, there will be
no marketing plan. OFOC will,
however, continue to monitor local market conditions, including the cost and
price of grid electricity, the cost of generating solar electricity, and local
regulations that may affect project economics through feed-in tariffs, tax
credits, rebates on capital costs, or other financial incentives. If conditions appear favorable to the sale of
solar electricity to the local grid or consumers in the future, a detailed
marketing plan will be developed to target appropriate purchasers.
The marketing plan
for other locations that might not have a captive market will revolve around
the following points:
1)
“Clean”
Energy: For markets which have consumers that are environmentally conscious, we
will market the solar power product as a way to help the environment and reduce
the communities’ carbon footprint. By focusing on the reduction of greenhouse
gas emissions and benefits to the local community, we will differentiate the
solar energy from other non-renewable sources.
2)
Health
Benefits: For regions which have consumers that are health conscious or that
have bad air quality, we will market the solar power product as a way to help
local communities’ air quality and overall health standards. Using solar energy
will decrease the amount of local air pollution by decreasing the amount of
coal, kerosene or diesel being consumed. This will directly benefit the local
communities’ residents by reducing health problems caused by high air
pollution.
3)
Cheaper
Energy: For communities that have the ability to receive tax benefits,
government rebates, cheap funding, or have the ability to sell electricity back
into the grid, there is a possibility of reducing the cost of solar power below
the cost of energy from the grid or other sources. We will market the solar
power product as a way for consumers to save money since it will be a cheaper
alternative to other sources of energy.
4)
Benefits
of Available Electricity: In areas where
a solar facility may be the only source of electricity, excess electricity can
be marketed as a means to develop or expand businesses (such as those depending
on refrigeration or electronics) and improve quality of life.
Financial Plan
In general, large-scale solar projects are designed and constructed when there is a reasonable understanding of the electricity loads that the system would be required to meet, and some understanding of the available solar resource at the site. Neither of these factors is currently known for the Ninh Binh Orphan Community site. We have drawn up estimates for community electricity needs that range from 352 kilowatt hours (kWh) per day with a potential 55 kw peak load, to 14,300 kWh per day with a peak load of 110 kw (see supporting documents). We have developed this financial plan with the goal of evaluating a solar facility that meets the lower end of this range, because the Orphan Community will be able to meet any additional demand for electricity through the local grid. In addition, solar power and battery backup systems are modular and easily expandable through the incremental addition of system components.
The available solar resource at Ninh Binh was assumed to be
similar to that of Nam Dinh,
Given the variability of the solar resource, OFOC staff asked us to explore two distinct options for a solar facility at the Ninh Binh community site. The first option (“Option 1”) is designed to meet the minimum estimate of the community’s electricity need throughout the year, with the goal of using the available electricity grid as little as possible. This results in a comparatively large system with a battery backup to generate and store sufficient electricity when there is relatively little sunlight available. During sunny months, this system will generate substantial excess electricity that cannot be used by the OFOC community.
Option 2 is designed to generate enough electricity to meet minimum estimated electricity needs during the sunniest months of the year without generating substantial excess electricity. The community would purchase electricity from the grid as needed to supplement the facility’s production. This option results in a substantial reduction in the number of solar panels required, but a battery backup would still be required because most of the electricity demand for the facility is likely to occur during non-daylight hours.
In addition, a third option is evaluated in which a much smaller system is installed to meet daytime “baseload” (or constant) electricity demand of the community, without a battery backup.
Facility Sizing &
Equipment
For each of the above options, the size of the facility was estimated using the online system design tools at www.energymatters.com.au, an Australian renewable energy retailer.
We researched equipment from a variety of manufacturers and retailers, and chose the following based on cost and performance factors. Note that, while we believe these equipment options to be reasonable, actual equipment selection and system design should be done by a professional with solar design experience and knowledge of the local environment and available solar resource in Ninh Binh. It is possible that different components may be best suited to the Ninh Binh site, or that larger components may be available that would be more cost-effective.
- Kyocera KD205GX-LP 205W solar panels (specs and price from www.wholesalesolar.com)
- Outback FM 80a charge controller (specs and price from www.wholesalesolar.com)
- SMA Sunnyboy 7000W inverter (specs and price from www.wholesalesolar.com)
- Ironridge UNI-GR/04 ground mounts (specs and price from www.wholesalesolar.com)
- Absolyte 48v 2000Ah batteries (specs and price from bitterrootsolar.com)
Solar tracking systems were also evaluated but rejected for the Ninh Binh site. See supporting documents for details.
Facility Life
Solar panels typically have a warranty for 20-25 years, and commonly expected to last 30+ years. The financial analysis below assumes a very optimistic 40 year facility life.
Avoided Costs &
Potential Revenues
It should be noted that there is no revenue stream included
in this financial plan, as opportunities to realize revenue are likely to be
very limited, as noted in previous sections and below. Instead, the financial benefit of this
project is in avoided costs of purchasing electricity from the local grid. Grid electricity is available to consumers in
Revenue from Certified Emission Reductions (CERs, which are one type of carbon credits) through the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism may be possible to obtain, but are not included in these financial estimates due to a high level of uncertainty about both the ability to obtain them and their price. Assuming all power used by the OFOC community would be generated by coal-fired power plants if not generated by an on-site solar facility, and such coal-fired plants generate approximately 1 kg CO2 per kWh (see http://www.esru.strath.ac.uk/EandE/Web_sites/01-02/RE_info/C02.htm), then the OFOC facility may avoid the production of approximately 140 tonnes of CO2 per year under Option 1, 100 tonnes under Option 2, and 8 tonnes under Option 3. CERs have recently sold for as much as $30/tonne of avoided CO2 emissions, so there is a possibility that the OFOC facility could realize revenue of approximately $4,000 annually under Option 1 by replacing its own coal-fired energy demand with solar generation, or $3,000 annually under Option 2, not including potentially substantial costs for certification and brokerage. The CER income in Option 3 would be negligible. There may be some additional opportunity for CER income from selling solar electricity to other customers under Option 1.
Revenue from the sale of unused electricity into the power grid may also be possible to obtain at some point in the future if Vietnam supports a feed-in tariff (which guarantees a specific rate, often above market rates, for renewably-generated electricity) or net metering (which allows electricity to be both purchased from and sold into the grid at market rates) for renewable energy production. However, this is not currently an option, and revenue from direct sale to other local businesses is highly uncertain given their current access to relatively reliable inexpensive power from the electricity grid, so this revenue source is not included in the financial plan. If OFOC could realize revenue from excess electricity at a rate of $0.05/kWh, then approximately $9,000 might be earned per year under Option 1. No additional revenue would be earned under Options 2 or 3 because the facility would use all electricity generated.
Discount Rate
For the sake of simplicity, this financial analysis does not
involve discounted cash flows.
Financial
Estimates – Option 1 (battery backup, minimal grid use)
Preliminary Costs:
Licensing/permitting Unknown
System design Unknown
Facility
Installation:
1,177 Kyocera KD205GX-LP 205W solar panels @ $910 $1,071,070
44 Outback FM 80a charge controllers @ $569 25,036
8 SMA Sunnyboy 7000W inverters @ $4,005 32,040
583 Ironridge UNI-GR/04 ground mounts @ $251 146,333
22 Absolyte 48v 2000Ah batteries @ $9,900 217,800
Other battery system costs 8,250
Other Balance of System (electronics housing, foundations, wiring, etc.) Unknown
Shipping costs Unknown
Labor – engineering, construction Unknown
Taxes on equipment purchased Unknown
Land costs Unknown
Total installed costs >1,500,529
Additional Capital Investment Required:
Replacement inverter @ year 20 32,040
Replacement batteries @ year 20 217,800
Operating Costs:
Solar panel cleaning (unskilled labor) & other maintenance Minimal
Avoided Costs:
Annual Electricity use: 146,000 kWh/year @ $0.055/kWh 8,030
Annual ROI: None
Payback period: None
Annual cost of solar electricity assuming 40 year project life: >$43,800
(Assumed straight line depreciation, no discount rate, no salvage value)
Cost of solar electricity per kWh >$0.30
Physical size
Given solar panel size of approx. 60”x39” placed at a 20 degree
angle, with spacing between rows of 2x maximum mount height (est. 22”), the
facility will fit in an area of 200’x200’
Financial
Estimates – Option 2 (grid-tied, battery backup)
Preliminary Costs:
Licensing/permitting Unknown
System design Unknown
Facility Installation
376 Kyocera KD205GX-LP 205W solar panels @ $910 $342,160
44 Outback FM 80a charge controllers @ $569 25,036
8 SMA Sunnyboy 7000W inverters @ $4,005 32,040
188 Ironridge UNI-GR/04 ground mounts @ $251 47,188
22 Absolyte 48v 2000Ah batteries @ $9,900 217,800
Other battery system costs 8,250
Other Balance of System (electronics housing, foundations, wiring, etc.) Unknown
Shipping costs Unknown
Labor – engineering, construction Unknown
Taxes on equipment purchased Unknown
Land costs Unknown
Total installed costs >672,474
Additional Capital Investment Required:
Replacement inverter @ year 20 32,040
Replacement batteries @ year 20 217,800
Operating Costs:
Solar panel cleaning (unskilled labor) & other maintenance Minimal
Avoided Costs:
106,000 kWh @ $0.055/kWh 5,830
Annual ROI: None
Payback period: None
Annual cost of solar electricity assuming 40 year project life: >$23,100
(Assumed straight line depreciation, no discount rate, no salvage value)
(Note that purchase of electricity from grid would also be required)
Cost of solar electricity per kWh >$0.218
Physical size
Given solar panel size of approx. 60”x39” placed at a 20
degree angle, with spacing between rows of 2x maximum mount height (est. 22”),
the facility will fit in an area slightly larger than 100’x100’
Financial
Estimates – Option 3 (grid-tied, no battery backup)
Preliminary Costs:
Licensing/permitting Unknown
System design Unknown
Facility Installation
30 Kyocera KD205GX-LP 205W solar panels @ $910 $ 27,300
1 SMA Sunnyboy 7000W inverters @ $4,005 4,005
15 Ironridge UNI-GR/04 ground mounts @ $251 3,765
Other Balance of System (electronics housing, foundations, wiring, etc.) Unknown
Shipping costs Unknown
Labor – engineering, construction Unknown
Taxes on equipment purchased Unknown
Land costs Unknown
Total installed costs >35,070
Additional Capital Investment Required:
Replacement inverter @ year 20 4,005
Operating Costs:
Solar panel cleaning (unskilled labor) & other maintenance Minimal
Avoided Costs:
8,250 kWh @ $0.055/kWh 453
Annual ROI: <1.15% (avoided costs / [total installed costs + replacement inverter costs])
Payback period: >86 years
Annual cost of solar electricity assuming 40 year project life: >$977
(Assumed straight line depreciation, no discount rate, no salvage value)
(Note that purchase of electricity from grid would also be required)
Cost of solar electricity per kWh >$0.118
Physical size
Given solar panel size of approx. 60”x39” placed at a 20
degree angle, with spacing between rows of 2x maximum mount height (est. 22”),
the facility will fit in an area of 30’x30’
Development Plan
If OFOC chooses to go forward with a solar facility for the Ninh Binh orphan community, one possible development plan might be as follows:
Pre-development: Construct Orphan Community
Development:
I. Gather local weather data to determine whether conditions are sufficiently similar to available weather data from Nam Dinh (conducted during Community construction, continuing through first few months of solar facility development)
II. Solicit contributions (cash and in-kind) to fund construction (continuous)
III. Conduct analysis of electricity used by the operating community to determine actual electricity needs (Month 1)
IV. Design solar facility based on actual and projected electricity demand, and local weather conditions (Month 2)
V. Obtain necessary permits (Month 2-3)
VI. Purchase and take delivery of materials, initiate construction (Month 3-6)
VII. Commission facility (Month 7)
Operations Plan
Every 3 months: Clean solar panels, check facility to ensure optimal operations, and evaluate solar output against community demand.
Troubleshoot, repair and replace equipment as needed (for example, inverters and batteries have an estimated 20-year lifespan).
Risks
There are a variety of risks associated with this project. The first set of risks is associated with limited knowledge of existing and potential OFOC community sites and resources that are available. This includes the following risks:
- Facility underperformance due to incorrect estimation of solar availability and variability. This business plan used estimated average solar availability for Nam Dinh, which is approximately 20 miles northeast of Ninh Binh. Weather conditions may be different in Ninh Binh, and actual solar availability may vary substantially from historic averages. This business plan has addressed this risk by assuming that the community can rely on grid electricity in the absence of sufficient sunlight, and the facility can be expanded if necessary.
- Facility size larger or smaller than needed. There is very little specific information about the electrical appliances that will be used in the Ninh Binh orphan community and their usage patterns. As a result, the estimated electricity needs may be substantially different from the actual needs. This business plan has addressed this risk by generating a very rough estimated range of possible electricity use, and aiming to meet the lower end of that range with the assumption that the community can rely on grid electricity in the absence of sufficient solar-generated electricity, and the facility can be expanded if necessary. However, this risk can best be addressed by constructing the OFOC community and measuring its actual electricity usage patterns before finalizing the design of the solar facility.
In addition to the above risks, there are risks in the development and construction phase of the project, including:
- Insufficient funding to construct the facility. It is possible that funding will not be able to construct a facility that is as large as necessary to meet the OFOC community’s electricity needs. In such a case, a smaller facility can be constructed.
- Availability of skilled labor. Actual design, selection of facility components (including solar panels, batteries, inverters, etc), and construction of this solar facility should be handled by individuals with prior experience in such work. Trained professionals will also be required periodically to service the facility. It is assumed that such skilled labor is available to OFOC, but this may not be the case.
- Permitting. The permitting process for such a facility in Ninh Binh is unknown. It may be possible that obtaining necessary permits is difficult.
- Interconnection. It is possible that working with the electric utility to connect the OFOC community to the grid in a way that facilitates use from the solar facility will present unforeseen challenges and limit the ability to use the solar facility in an optimal manner, or limit the ability to use grid electricity.
Finally, there are operating risks to the project, including:
- Equipment malfunction or breakdown. Although solar panels themselves have no moving parts and are guaranteed to operate for 20 years or more, inverters, batteries, and other components of the facility have a shorter lifespan and may be prone to malfunction after extended use. If such a malfunction occurs, the facility may generate less electricity than expected. It is assumed that the OFOC community will be able to rely on grid electricity in such a situation.
- Natural disaster. Events such as cyclones or earthquakes may cause severe damage to the facility, preventing it from generating electricity. Depending on the actual risk of such events, it may be advisable to reinforce the facility to make it more likely to withstand such events.
- Vandalism or inadvertent damage. The facility could be damaged either deliberately or inadvertently by individuals or animals. A fence surrounding the facility would limit the opportunity to damage the facility, and limit the likelihood of anyone hurting themselves.
Appendix
/ Supporting Materials
Supporting
Materials
Solar Tracking Systems
At the request of OFOC staff, solar tracking systems were considered for this project. Tracking systems can increase the amount of energy generated by between 25% and 35% per year, with as much as a 55% increase during the months with the most light (www.energymatters.com.au). It was determined that they would not improve project economics under either of the system options that were considered, however.
Under Option 1, the solar facility was sized to meet energy needs during the darkest month of the year. This is also when tracking systems provide the least efficiency gain, and it can be inferred from the statistics above that the gain would be significantly less than 25%. Assuming a 20% energy gain from a tracking system in January (the darkest month at the Nam Dinh weather station), then equipment costs for a facility with a tracking system would be about $57,000 (or 5%) higher than a facility without a tracking system. Annual operating costs would also increase substantially, as tracking system motors and other components would have to be serviced, repaired, and replaced. Finally, most of the increase in electricity generation would occur during sunny months when such a facility would already generate excess electricity, so most of the benefit of a tracking system would be wasted, since it could not be stored or used.
Under Option 2, a facility designed to produce only electricity that the OFOC community can use may see a reduction in up-front costs of over $60,000 (or 15%) as a result of using a tracking system. However, the total benefit of such a system is also reduced, as it will produce less electricity during the year as a whole (increasing the amount of grid electricity that needs to be purchased, for an additional cost of between $600 and $1000 per year), and operating costs would increase as noted above. Given the small net benefit of such a system, and the increased uncertainties associated with maintenance of a tracking system, it was decided not to include such a system in the plan for the facility.
Our Family Orphan Communities – rough estimates of electricity use
The following low and high estimates for electricity use per house in the OFOC community are based on specs for houses with 20 occupants provided by OFOC, and estimated appliance energy use provided by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Consumer’s Guide to Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, at http://www.eere.energy.gov/consumer/your_home/appliances/index.cfm/mytopic=10040.
Note that these are rough estimates based on typical
appliances and usage in the
Total energy use for the entire OFOC community was assumed
to be approximately 11 times the usage of a single OFOC house, based on plans
for 10 houses per OFOC community, plus additional facilities including a
medical clinic.
Low
estimate per house:
Lighting
Assumptions: 738 watts/house
(per estimate from the Excel files Wing sent), no daytime use, nighttime
maximum 75% of lights on, average total usage equivalent to 60% of lights
working for 6 hours a night
Instantaneous need (nighttime
only) = 738 watts * 75% = 554 watts
Average daily usage = 738
watts * 60% * 6 hours = 2657 watts
Clothes washer
Assumptions: 350 watts, average
1 load per person per week (or about 3 loads a day to serve 20 people), 0.5
hours per load.
Instantaneous need (day or
night) = 350 watts
Average daily usage = 350
watts * 3 loads/day * 0.5 hour/load = 525 watt hours
TV
Assumptions: 19”, 65 watts, average
use 4 hours/day
Instantaneous need = 65 watts
Average daily usage = 65
watts * 4 hours = 260 watt hours
Radios
Assumptions: 4 radios, 70
watts each, average use 3 hours per radio per day
Instantaneous need = 70
watts/radio * 4 radios = 280 watts
Average daily usage = 70 watts/radio
* 4 radios * 3 hours = 840 watt hours
Computer and monitor
Assumptions: 4 computers, 270
watts while in use, 60 watts while in sleep mode, average computer usage of 30
minutes/day/person or 10 hours/day total usage, in sleep mode during remaining
time
Instantaneous need = 270
watts/computer * 4 computers = 1080 watts
Average daily usage = (270
watts * 10 hours) + (60 watts * 86 hours) = 7860 watt hours
Refrigerator
Assumptions: 1x16 cubic foot
refrigerator, frost-free, 725 watts, motor runs 1/3 of the time (per DOE
website)
Instantaneous need = 725
watts
Average daily usage = 725
watts * 24 hours * 1/3 = 5800 watt hours
Microwave
Assumptions: 750 watts, used
2 hours/day
Instantaneous need = 750
watts
Average daily usage = 750
watts * 2 hours = 1500 watt hours
Ceiling fans
Assumptions: 16 fans, 65
watts each, each fan operated an average of 12 hours/day
Instantaneous need = 65 watts
* 16 fans = 1040 watts
Average daily usage = 65
watts/fan * 12 hours * 16 fans = 12,480 watt hours
Total
Instantaneous need: > 5000 watts per house
Average daily usage: 32,000 watt hours per house
(For comparison, this average
daily usage for 20 people is close to average daily usage of an average 2.7
person household in the
High estimate per house:
Lighting
Assumptions: 738 watts/house
(per estimate from the Excel files Wing sent), 25% of lights on during the day,
90% of lights on for 6 hours at night, 25% of lights on for remaining 6 hours
of night.
Instantaneous need (nighttime
only) = 738 watts * 90% = 665 watts
Average daily usage = (738
watts * 25% * 18 hours) + (738 watts * 90% * 6 hours) = 7310 watts
Clothes washer
Assumptions: 500 watts, average
2 loads per person per week (or about 6 loads a day to serve 20 people), 1 hour
per load.
Instantaneous need (day or
night) = 500 watts
Average daily usage = 500
watts * 6 loads/day * 1 hour/load = 3000 watt hours
TV
Assumptions: 36”, 133 watts, average
use 8 hours/day
Instantaneous need = 133
watts
Average daily usage =133
watts * 8 hours = 1064 watt hours
Radios
Assumptions: 4 radios, 400
watts each, average use 8 hours per radio per day
Instantaneous need = 400
watts/radio * 4 radios = 1600 watts
Average daily usage = 400 watts/radio
* 4 radios * 8 hours = 12,800 watt hours
Computer and monitor
Assumptions: 4 computers, 270
watts while in use, 60 watts while in sleep mode, average computer usage of 1.5
hours/day/person or 30 hours/day total usage, in sleep mode during remaining
time
Instantaneous need = 270
watts/computer * 4 computers = 1080 watts
Average daily usage = (270
watts * 30 hours) + (60 watts * 66 hours) = 12,060 watt hours
Refrigerator
Assumptions: 2x16 cubic foot
refrigerator, frost-free, 725 watts, motor runs 1/3 of the time (per DOE
website)
Instantaneous need = 1450
watts
Average daily usage = 1450
watts * 24 hours * 1/3 = 11,600 watt hours
Microwave
Assumptions: 750 watts, used 4
hours/day
Instantaneous need = 750
watts
Average daily usage = 750
watts * 4 hours = 3000 watt hours
Ceiling fans
Assumptions: 25 fans, 175
watts each, each fan operated an average of 18 hours/day
Instantaneous need = 175
watts * 25 fans = 4375 watts
Average daily usage = 175
watts/fan * 18 hours * 25 fans = 78,750 watt hours
Total
Instantaneous need: > 10,000 watts per house
Average daily usage: 130,000 watt hours per house